Marc Klemp

Associate Professor, University of Copenhagen
Research Affiliate, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Curriculum Vitae (PDF) Email

I am an economist studying economic development, demographic dynamics, and econometric methods. My research explores how ancient human migration patterns, population diversity, and demographic transitions shape modern economic outcomes, and I develop econometric tools for causal inference. Recent work also examines automation's macroeconomic effects through production networks.

  • PhD in Economics, University of Copenhagen
  • Associate Professor, University of Copenhagen
  • Research Fellow, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
  • Editor of the NEP report in Economic Growth (join here)
  • Profiles: Google Scholar, RePEc

Current Research

Highlights from my current research agenda, spanning long-run economic development, macroeconomics, and econometric methods.

Automation, Recessions, and Production Networks

Explores the macroeconomic implications of automation through production networks

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2026
Paper in preparation. Working paper coming soon.

Weak Identification in IV Interaction Models

New methodological contributions to instrumental variables estimation

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2026
Paper in preparation. Working paper coming soon.

Roots of Cultural Diversity

A unified theory of cultural evolution: how ancestral dispersion shapes persistent differences in cultural diversity

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2026 | with Oded Galor and Daniel C. Wainstock
This research develops a unified theory of cultural evolution that captures the primary forces that have shaped cultural change over the course of human existence. Cultural dynamics arise from the interplay between adaptation-based vertical transmission, which directs cultural traits toward environmentally compatible forms, and horizontal diffusion that promotes cultural convergence. Nesting vertical transmission, horizontal diffusion, and evolutionary selection within a unified analytical framework, the theory establishes microeconomic foundations for an evolutionary process in which intergenerational transmission enhances environmental compatibility and thereby increases fitness, governing the direction of long-run cultural change. The theory implies that (a) wider dispersion in ancestral cultural predispositions is associated with greater adaptability and broader long-run cultural heterogeneity, and (b) cross-societal differences in the ancestral dispersion of cultural predispositions underpin persistent differences in cultural diversity over stages of development. Drawing on novel measures of cultural diversity, encompassing folkloric and musical traditions among indigenous ethnic groups, as well as norms, values, and attitudes in modern societies, the empirical analysis corroborates that variation across societies in the dispersion of ancestral cultural predispositions governs global variation in cultural diversity across both traditional and contemporary populations.

Roots of Inequality

Population diversity and cross-societal differences in inequality

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2026 | with Oded Galor and Daniel C. Wainstock
Why does inequality vary across societies? Why are some societies more unequal than others? We advance the hypothesis that in a market economy, where income differentials largely reflect variation in productive traits, a significant share of cross-societal differences in inequality reflects persistent variation in the degree of diversity within societies, rooted in the prehistoric Out-of-Africa migration. Patterns of inequality within the U.S. population are consistent with this hypothesis, suggesting that disparities among groups originating from different ancestral societies are associated with differences in the dispersion of productive traits within those societies, shaped during humanity’s dispersal from Africa. Consistent with this hypothesis, populations whose ancestors originated closer to East Africa tend to exhibit greater dispersion in productive traits, such as education, ability, and labor supply, which appear to underlie the relationship between ancestral diversity and inequality.

Research Themes

My research explores interconnected themes in long-term economic development, demographics, health, and econometric methods. Below are the major themes that characterize my work.

Population Diversity & Deep Roots

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How prehistoric migration shaped diversity, inequality, conflict, and cultural variation.

This research theme explores how the prehistoric Out-of-Africa migration continues to shape modern economic, political, and cultural outcomes. Work with co-authors including Quamrul Ashraf, Cemal Eren Arbatlı, Oded Galor, and Daniel Wainstock establishes fundamental links between the genetic and cultural diversity resulting from ancient human migration and contemporary phenomena such as inequality, civil conflict, institutional development, and economic performance.

Using novel datasets on population diversity, folkloric traditions, and cultural values, we show that diversity has both beneficial and detrimental effects on societies. While intermediate levels of diversity foster innovation and creativity, excessive diversity can reduce social cohesion and increase civil conflict. Societies whose ancestors migrated farther from Africa exhibit systematically lower cultural diversity and different patterns of inequality.

These deep historical roots help explain persistent differences in the wealth of nations and provide important insights for policy approaches to managing diversity in contemporary societies.

Key Publications in This Theme:

Demographic Dynamics & Human Capital

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How fertility decisions influence economic development through quantity-quality tradeoffs.

This research theme investigates the relationship between demographic behaviors and economic outcomes, with particular focus on the quantity-quality tradeoff in children. Work with co-authors including Francesco Cinnirella, Oded Galor, Chris Minns, Patrick Wallis, and Jacob Weisdorf uses unique historical datasets, including reconstructed genealogies spanning centuries, to demonstrate how reproductive decisions influenced human capital formation and contributed to modern economic growth.

A key finding from this research is that moderate fecundity maximized long-run reproductive success. Using data from Quebec covering 1608-1800, we show that while higher fecundity led to more children in the short term, families with moderate fecundity achieved greater long-run reproductive success. This suggests natural selection favored moderate fertility rates, supporting a quantity-quality tradeoff in which parents invested more resources in fewer children.

We have also uncovered evidence that pre-industrial families actively controlled their fertility through birth spacing, challenging traditional Malthusian narratives. This work provides important insights into the demographic transition and demonstrates that even historical populations employed sophisticated fertility control strategies in response to economic conditions.

Key Publications in This Theme:

Economic Transitions & Resources

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How historical shocks, resources, and market conditions shape long-term development.

This research theme examines how historical shocks, resource access, and economic conditions have influenced long-term development paths. Work with co-authors including Mark Gradstein, Niels Møller, Paul Sharp, and Jacob Weisdorf connects early-life conditions, resource availability, and market dynamics to explain economic transitions and persistent effects that continue to shape modern economies.

Using empirical evidence from historical England and Scandinavia, we demonstrate that regions experienced a "post-Malthusian" phase where population and income grew simultaneously despite diminishing returns. This research supports transitional growth theories that bridge Malthusian stagnation and modern economic growth, providing insights into the mechanisms driving the Industrial Revolution.

Work on natural resources has challenged traditional "resource curse" narratives by showing that localities closer to oil fields in Brazil enjoy higher per capita income, independent of oil royalties. This suggests "indirect linkage" effects where resource proximity creates positive economic spillovers, informing our understanding of how natural resources can contribute to local economic development.

Key Publications in This Theme:

Health Impacts and Biological Mechanisms

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Investigating the interplay between health factors, biology, and socioeconomic outcomes.

This research theme focuses on the intersection of health, biology, and economic outcomes. This interdisciplinary work spans from historical health shocks to contemporary medical studies, investigating how biological factors influence both short and long-term wellbeing across different populations.

Through collaboration with medical researchers including Adam Horwitz, Henrik Horwitz, Miriam Kolko, Martin Lauritzen, and others, this research has contributed to understanding how antihypertensive medication affects glaucoma onset, how brain responses correlate with intelligence, and the fertility patterns of specific populations. This research uses advanced statistical methods applied to large-scale medical and population datasets to identify causal relationships in health outcomes.

Historical health research is also a key component of this theme. Work with Jacob Weisdorf on the English famine of the 1720s demonstrated that early-life adversity caused permanent health damage, with affected individuals experiencing higher mortality risks into adulthood. These findings contribute to our understanding of the lasting impact of health shocks and have implications for how societies should respond to health crises today.

Key Publications in This Theme:

Econometric Methods

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Developing tools for causal inference with instrumental variables.

This research theme develops econometric methods for causal inference, with a focus on instrumental variables estimation. This work addresses challenges that arise when using historical instruments to study persistent effects and identification issues in applied settings.

A key contribution, developed with Gregory Casey, is the augmented IV estimator for historical instruments, which accounts for the persistence of endogenous factors over time. This methodology has been implemented in the ESTETA Stata package, providing applied researchers with practical tools for estimating long-run causal effects.

Key Publications in This Theme:

Research Output

Working Papers

Economics

Health (co-authored)

Software

Presentations

2022

  • 1st International Workshop on Migration and Family Economics, Paris, France

2021

  • UCLouvain Economics Seminar, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

2020

  • Danish Economic Society's biannual meeting, Kolding, Denmark

2019

  • 13th International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics, London, UK

2017

  • Bonn University, Germany, December
  • Hamburg University, Germany, December
  • American Economic Association, Chicago, USA, January