I. INTRODUCTION

The Institute of Economics at the University of Copenhagen is with financial support from the Danish Research Academy organising a two-week intensive ph.d. course on SAM and CGE modelling for development analysis for advanced graduate students of economics from 2 to 12 June 1998. No previous specialised studies in social accounting and computable equilibrium analysis are assumed. Yet, participants must have the necessary background in economics and technical skills to follow a course at ph.d. level in economics with a particular focus on development problems. Further information on the course, which is open to 25 participants from Denmark and other Nordic countries, is given below. A few additional participants with separate funding may also be admitted.

II. LECTURERS

The following two visiting professors will be responsible for teaching the course:

* Professor Erik Thorbecke, H.E. Babcock Professor of Economics and Food Economics, Cornell University

* Professor David W. Roland-Holst, Department of Economics, Mills College, Oakland

In addition, professors Thorbecke and Roland-Holst will be assisted by a teaching assistant in the implementation of computer labs.

III. COURSE OUTLINE

The course will consist of 20 two-hour lectures plus a number of computer labs. The lecture plan is the following (with tentative readings listed as well):

1. Brief review of the evolution and state of development economics (1950s-1990s). Review of major contributions to development theory, development models, data systems, and development policy.

Part 1: 1950s - 1970s.

Reference: Thorbecke, E. "Changing Conception of the Development Process: A Retrospective Appraisal", Chapter 1, forthcoming.

2. Brief review of the evolution and state of development economics (continued).

Part 2: 1980s and 1990s.

3. A general introduction to the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) as a data system and conceptual framework.

References:

G. Pyatt and E. Thorbecke, Planning Techniques for a Better Future, International Labor Office, Geneva, Switzerland, (1976).

E. Thorbecke, "Social Accounting Matrices and Social Accounting Analysis", Chapter prepared for inclusion in Walter Isard (Editor), Methods of Regional Analysis: An Introduction to Regional Science, (1997), section 2.

4. Classification and disaggregation of accounts and data requirements in the construction of a SAM.

Reference: Thorbecke (1997), section 3 and 4.

5. SAM multiplier analysis: Unconstrained and constrained multipliers.

Reference: Thorbecke (1997), sections 5.2 and 5.2.

6. Structural path analysis and transmission of economic influence within the SAM framework.

Reference: Defourny, J. and E. Thorbecke, "Structural Path Analysis and Multiplier Decomposition with a Social Accounting Matrix Framework," The Economic Journal (1984).

7. Case studies and applications of SAMs.

At national level: A Mexican SAM to study structural adjustment

Reference: I. Adelman and J.E. Taylor, "Is structural adjustment with the human face possible? The case of Mexico". Journal of Development Studies, (1990).

8. Case studies and applications of SAMs. (continued)

At national level: A SAM of Indonesia to explore the impact of a changing pattern of government expenditures and budget retrenchment during a structural adjustment period (1982-87) on income distribution.

Reference: S. Keuning and E. Thorbecke, "The impact of budget retrenchment on income distribution in Indonesia: A Social Accounting Matrix application". Chapter 3 in E. Thorbecke et al, Adjustment and Equity in Indonesia, Development Centre of the OECD, Paris, (1992).

9. Case studies and applications of SAMs. (continued)

At interregional, district and village level: A two-region SAM of Indonesia, a SAM of a Kenyan district, and SAMs of two villages in India.

References:

Lewis, B. and E. Thorbecke, "District-Level Economic Linkages in Kenya, Evidence Based on a Small Regional Social Accounting Matrix,", World Development, (1992).

A. Parikh and E. Thorbecke, "Impact of rural industrialization on village life and economy: A SAM approach". Economic Development and Cultural Change, (1996).

10. A comparison of village SAMs to understand the functioning of village economies across different countries.

Reference: J. E. Taylor and I. Adelman, Village Economies, New York: Cambridge University Press, (1996), Chapters 1-7.

11. Budgetary rules to minimize societal poverty in a general equilibrium context.

References:

E. Thorbecke, Intersectoral linkages and their impact on rural poverty alleviation: a Social Accounting Matrix approach, UNIDO (1994).

E. Thorbecke and D. Berrian, "Budgetary rules to minimize societal poverty in a general equilibrium context". Journal of Development Economics (1992).

12. A multiplier decomposition method to analyze poverty alleviation.

Reference: E. Thorbecke and H. S. Jung, "A multiplier decomposition method to analyze poverty alleviation", Journal of Development Economics, (1996).

13. An introduction to the structure of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and the SAM as a basis for building and calibrating these models.

Reference: S. Devarajan, Lecture notes on CGEs.

14. From micro household-farm to village CGE.

Basic village CGE model

Reference: J.E. Taylor and I. Adelman, Village Economies, Chapters 2 and 8.

15. From micro household-farm to village CGE (continuation).

Policy, market and environmental simulations using village CGEs with missing markets.

Reference: Taylor and Adelman, Village Economics, Chapters 9 and 10.

16. Trade-focus national CGE models.

Reference: S. Devarajan, J. D. Lewis, and S. Robinson, Getting the Model Right: The General Equilibrium Approach to Adjustment Policy, Draft manuscript, (1994).

17. Trade-focus national CGE models (continued).

Reference: Devarajan et al. (1994)

18. An integrated real and financial macro econometric general equilibrium model of Indonesia to explore the impact of alternative stabilization and structural adjustment policies in Indonesia on income distribution.

Reference: Thorbecke et al., Adjustment and Equity in Indonesia, Paris: OECD Development Centre, (1992), Chapter 4.

19. CGE to explore the impact of agricultural policies on migration in a US-Mexico free trade area.

Reference: S. Robinson, M. Burfisher, R. Hinojosa, and K. Thierfelder, "Agricultural policies and migration in a US-Mexico free trade area: a computable general equilibrium analysis", Journal of Policy Modelling (1993).

20. CGE to study pollution issues.

Reference: S. Robinson, "Pollution, market failure, and optimal policy in the economy wide framework". Department of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Working Paper No. 559 (1990).

The computer labs, which are an integrated part of the course, will be organised with a view to allowing participants to learn a variety of techniques and familiarize themselves with software programmes (GAMS and MATS) used in working with SAMs and CGEs.

IV. COURSE CERTIFICATES/CREDITS

Successful completion of the exercises in the computer lab will be used as a basis for providing course certificates to the participants.

V. COURSE ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION

The organiser of the course is Associate Professor Finn Tarp of the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen. Contact addresses as follows:

Telephone: (+45) 35 32 30 41
Fax: (+45) 35 32 30 00
E-mail: Finn.Tarp@econ.ku.dk

Finn Tarp will be assisted by Ms. Vibeke Kovsted (administrator), who can be contacted as follows:

Telephone: (+45) 35 32 44 03
Fax: (+45) 35 32 30 64
E-mail: Vibeke.Kovsted@econ.ku.dk

VI. REGISTRATON AND FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR PARTICIPANTS

Those wishing to participate should send an application including a curriculum vitae to Vibeke Kovsted as soon as possible and not later than 1 April 1998. A final list of participants will be issued before 1 May 1997. Those wishing to present a paper related to their own work are expected to submit an abstract not later than 1 May.

Assistance with booking accomodation etc. will be available, and there are 10 grants for students from outside Denmark under which travel expenses of up to DKK 1,000 can be refunded. Free accomodation in modest facilities and a per diem can also be provided for up to 10 such participants after approval by the course organiser. For Danish participants from outside Copenhagen there are up to five grants, under which travel expenses of no more than DKK 500 per person can be refunded together with accomodation and a per diem.

Those wishing to participate in the course must therefore indicate in their application whether they apply as well for one of the above grants or have their own funding.

Once participation is approved participants will receive a more detailed questionnaire, which must be returned immediately.