The financial crisis and its macroeconomic repercussions (student seminar Spring 2012)

 

Themes and references (this list is under dynamic updating)

 

 

Useful overviews:

Laibson, 2011, lecture on “Asset prices and economic fluctuations”.

Stiglitz, J.E., 2011, Macroeconomics, monetary policy, and the crisis.

Both can be found here:

http://www.econ.ku.dk/okocg/VM/VM-general/diverse_supplerende_materiale_og_links.htm.

Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3, 2010, online at the Royal Library.

 

Notation applied in the references below:

“JEP 2010/4” refers to: Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 24, no. 4, Fall 2010.
“Adv. Macro homepage” refers to:
http://www.econ.ku.dk/okocg/VM/VM-general/diverse_supplerende_materiale_og_links.htm

Some of the references below are just introductions/surveys, but their list of references may contain important first-hand sources.

 

Themes

 

1. Why does the economy fall to pieces after a financial crisis?  

                Hall, R., 2010, Why does the economy fall to pieces after a financial crisis?

                JEP 2010/4.

                Hall. R., 2011, The long slump, AER, vol. 101 (2), 431-469.

                Se also http://www.stanford.edu/~rehall/2012AEAMeetings.htm  and

        http://www.stanford.edu/~rehall/Selected_Publications.html

2. Theory of effective demand failures (the corridor hypothesis).

 

Leijonhufvud, A., 2009a, Out of the corridor: Keynes and the crisis, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 33, 741-757.

Leijonhufvud, A., 2009b, Macroeconomics and the crisis: A personal appraisal. CEPR Policy Insight No. 41: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/PolicyInsights/PI.asp

 

3. What is Say’s law and what does it mean to reject it?

No good reference here. In fact, I regret I added this issue to the list. The two questions raised do not provide enough stuff for a paper as they can be answered very briefly. So let me do that at our meeting the coming Thursday.

 

4. New Keynesian models.

 

A workhorse version, see the proposal by Jeppe Druedahl.

Introduction to the NKE model framework: NKE literature

Attempts at extension with:

a) Involuntary unemployment.

Blanchard & Gali, JMCB, 2007, and AEJ Macroeconomics 2010.

b) Financial intermediation.

Cúrdia, V., and M. Woodford, 2009, Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy, Working Paper; Gertler, M., and N. Kiyotaki, Chapter 11 in Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3A, 2010, is online at the library..

c) Fixed capital investment in a Keynesian context.

Blanchard ??, Kiyotaki ??

Critique of the representative agent DSGE approach:

Pesaran, M.H., and R.P. Smith, 2011, Beyond the DSGE straightjacket, The Manchester School, vol. 79, 5-16.

 

5. Credit frictions, agency costs, and economic fluctuations:

a) Bank lending channel, bank runs:

Bernanke, Gertler, Mishkin.

D. W. Diamond: Banks and liquidity: A simple exposition of the Diamond-Dybvig model, Economic Quarterly, vol. 93 (2), 189-200.

b) Balance sheet channel. The Kiyotaki and Moore model. Kiyotaki and Moore, J. of Political Economy, 1997.

c) Financial regulation after the crisis. Special issue: Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 25 (1), 2011.

d) Ricardo Caballero, MIT.

 

6. The housing market and macroeconomics.

              See Adv. Macro homepage.

7. Theory of asset price bubbles. How to test for bubbles?

 

Miller and Stiglitz, 2010, Economic Journal, vol. 120 (4), 500-518.
                      Laibson, 2011,
lecture on “Asset prices and economic fluctuations”, see Adv. Macro homepage.

See references in Blanchard, 2009, The state of macro, Annual Review of Economics, 1, 209-228, in particular on p. 219.
Herding behavior in financial markets, see Peter Norman Sørensen.

Limits to arbitrage. See Shleifer and Vishny, 1997, in J. of Finance.

                      Guido Lorenzoni, MIT.

                       

8. Expectation formation:     

 

a) Self-fulfilling expectations.

Farmer, R. 2010, Animal spirits, persistent unemployment and the belief function. NBER Working Paper No. 16522. See also Farmer’s two new books at Adv. Macro homepage.

David Laibson, e.g. in Fuster, A., D. Laibson and B. Mendel, Natural expectations and macroeconomic fluctuations, se JEP 2010/4.

De Grauwe, P., 2010, Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Macroeconomics, CESifo Economic Studies, vol. 56 (4), 465-497.

De Grauwe, P., and Y. Ji, 2012, Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Multiple Equilibria in the Eurozone, CEPS WD no. 361. Background paper: De Grauwe, 2011.

b) Learning, Taylor rule, and liquidity trap.

Evans and Honkapohja, 2008, European Economic Review, vol. 52, 1438 – 1463. http://pages.uoregon.edu/gevans/

c) Uncertainty vs. risk, animal spirits.

Akerlof & Shiller, 2009, Animal spirits, Princeton Univ. Press.
d) Imperfect Knowledge Economics:
Two recent books by R. Frydman and M. Goldberg.

e) Rational beliefs.

Mordecai Kurz et al.

f) Heterogeneous expectations, learning, and information stickiness.

Damjan Pfajfar and Emilio Santoro.

g) Blanchard, O., Jean-Paul L'Huillier, and Guido Lorenzoni, 2009, News,

noise, and fluctuations: An empirical exploration. NBER WP no. 15015.

 

9. Leverage and deleverage cycles.

Geanakoplos, J., 2010, Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle, FRBNY Economic Policy Review, August 2010, 101-131.

Fostel and Geanakoplos (AER 2008 no. 4, AER 2012, no. 1), Eggertsson & Krugman, see

Adv. Macro homepage.

                      He and Xiong, 2010, Dynamic Debt Runs, Princeton WP.

Ivan Werning, MIT.

 

10. History of financial crises.

 

Reinhart and Rogoff, 2010, This time is different, Princeton Univ. Press.

 

11. Wage and price dynamics. Beveridge curve.

 

a) Wage curve and Phillips curve.

Blanchard, lecture notes, see Blanchard’s website at MIT.

Fuhrer and Moore, 1995, Inflation persistence, QJE, vol. 110, 127-159.

R.J. Gordon, 2011, The history of the Phillips curve: Consensus and

Bifurcation, Economica, vol. 78, 10-50.

b) The natural range of unemployment.
                     
Lye, J.N., and I.M. McDonald, ...... , Australian Economic Papers,

Sept. 2006.

McDonald, I.M., 1990.

R. Farmer, see Adv. Macro homepage. More on the labor market: see Hall

under 1 above.

 

12. Hysteresis in unemployment.

 

Acemoglu, Blanchard.

Lawrence Ball, Hysteresis in unemployment: Old and new evidence, NBER

Working Paper

No. 14818.

 

13. Should monetary policy attempt to intervene if a speculative bubble seems underway? If so, how?

                      

                      Blanchard, O., Bubbles, Liquidity Traps, and Monetary Policy, February 2000.

                      Buiter, W., 2012, The role of central banks in financial stability: Has it changed?

                        CEPR Discussion Paper no. 2012.

Gilchrist and Zahrajsek, Should monetary policy respond to increased financial

bond spread?

N. Roubini, 2006, Why central banks should burst bubbles, International Finance, vol. 9 (1), 87-107.

A.S. Posen, 2006, Why central banks should not burst bubbles, International Finance, vol. 9 (1), 109-124.

 

14. Liquidity trap and unconventional monetary policy.

 

Del Negro, M., G. Eggertsson, A. Ferrero, and N. Kiyotaki, 2011, The great escape?

A quantitative evaluation of the     Fed’s liquidity

facilities, Fed. Res. Bank of New York Staff Reports no. 520.

Buiter, 2009, see North American J. of Economics and Finance, vol. 20 (3).

Gertler and Karadi.

 

15. Fiscal policy in a liquidity trap: short- and long-run implications.

Coenen, G., et al., 2012, Effects of fiscal stimulus in structural models, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 4 (1), 22-68.

DeLong and Summers, 2012: Fiscal policy in a depressed economy, http://www.brookings.edu/economics/bpea/Latest-Conference/delongsummers.aspx
DeLong and Summers, 2012: The not-so-simple arithmetic of fiscal policy in a depressed economy.

Eggertsson and Krugman: Debt, deleveraging, and the liquidity trap, (mimeo draft) revised February 2012. Brief summary by Krugman is here.
Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, edited by Alberto Alesina and Francesco Giavazzi, National Bureau of Economic Research.   http://www.nber.org.ep.fjernadgang.kb.dk/books/ales11-1

Hall, R., ....

Woodford, M., 2010, Simple analytics of the government expenditure multiplier,

AEJ Macroeconomics.

Christiano, L. et al., 2011, When is the government spending multiplier large?

J. of Political Economy, vol. 119 (1).

Guajardo, J., D. Leigh, and A. Pescatori, 2011, Expansionary Austerity: New

International Evidence, WP/11/158.

Irons, J., and J. Bivens, 2010, Government Debt and Economic Growth, EPI

Briefing Paper.
                        Romer, D., and C. Romer, 2010, The macroeconomic effects of tax changes:

Estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks, AER, vol. 100, no. 3, 763-801.

Romer, C., What do we know about the effects of fiscal policy? Separating

evidence from ideology? See Adv. Macro homepage.

 

 

 

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